Key insights
- Jeffrey Gundlach suggests the recent surge in the 2-year Treasury yield, a 50 basis point increase in under three weeks, could signal a potential Federal Reserve rate hike. This contrasts with current Fed fund futures, which don't price in a high probability of a rate hike. Rising interest rates and inflation concerns, fueled by geopolitical tensions, are contributing factors.
Investing.com -- The U.S. two-year Treasury yield has climbed 50 basis points in less than three weeks, according to DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach, who suggested the move could signal a Federal Reserve rate increase ahead.
"The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming," Gundlach wrote on X.
The two-year Treasury yield reached a high of 3.928% Thursday morning before pulling back to near 3.8%.
Fed fund futures are not pricing in much chance of a rate hike. However, odds of a rate cut this year have disappeared since the conflict with Iran drove up interest rates and began fueling investor concerns about inflation.