Key insights
- The author argues that the Israel-Lebanon conflict is a critical, often overlooked, factor preventing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. They believe Iran will not allow the Strait to open unless Israel withdraws from Lebanon, which Israel is unlikely to do. This deadlock suggests continued upward pressure on oil prices, indirectly impacting US equities through inflation and energy sector performance. The author posits that only a significant shift in US foreign policy, turning away from Israel, could resolve the situation.
Sorry to post twice in a day. but I live in the area affected by the war. and my humble two cents is that something people overlook is the importance of Israel's occupation of Lebanon to this matter. there is no way Iran will open the Strait unless Israel withdraws from Lebanon. and there is no way Israel will withdraw and abandon its dreams of annexing more territory. no matter what trump says or does.
Iran abandoning Hezbollah will make it lose all credibility amongst its proxies in the region. it wouldn't do that. ( edit it already said there will be no negotiations without full withdrawal)
and Israel won't agree to withdraw.
the US will have to turn its back on Israel once and for all to open the Strait.
Edit i ask anyone downvoting to kindly explain why. I genuinely cant see how the Strait could open with this deadlock, but happy to change my mind