Key insights
- Avepoint's Q1 earnings are expected to show continued growth, but concerns remain about its reliance on Microsoft 365 seat growth and increasing competition in the cloud data protection market. A William Blair downgrade highlighted the risk of slowing M365 seat expansion impacting Avepoint's growth. Investors will focus on ARR growth and commentary on pricing pressure.
Avepoint Inc reports first-quarter earnings Thursday after market close, with investors eager to see whether the cloud data-protection company can sustain mid-twenties growth despite mounting concerns about its Microsoft dependence and intensifying competition in the backup market.
Analysts expect the company to post earnings of 8 cents per share on revenue of $116.12 million, according to consensus forecasts. That would represent year-over-year growth of 24.2% for earnings and 24.8% for revenue. Sequentially, the forecast marks improvement from the fourth quarter, when Avepoint earned 7 cents per share on revenue of $114.69 million.
Fourteen analysts covering the stock maintain a Buy consensus rating with a mean price target of $16.48, implying upside of roughly 61% from the current price near $10.26. The stock has fallen sharply from its 52-week high of $20.25, pressured by valuation concerns and questions about the sustainability of its Microsoft-centric growth model.
EPS estimates have remained flat over the past 60 days, while revenue estimates have been essentially unchanged, suggesting analysts are holding steady on their outlook heading into the print.
What Investors Are Watching
The key question is whether Avepoint can deliver on management’s guidance for roughly 26% annual recurring revenue growth in 2026, particularly as pressure builds on Microsoft 365 seat expansion. William Blair downgraded the stock to Hold in March, arguing that "AvePoint’s growth is correlated with M365 seat growth, which is likely to be muted as pressure builds on knowledge worker headcount" and that competition is intensifying across the crowded field of third-party backup providers.
The Microsoft 365 backup market has become increasingly competitive, with numerous vendors including Veeam, Keepit, Acronis, and others vying for share. Investors will scrutinize any commentary on pricing pressure or customer-acquisition costs.
Bulls, however, point to valuation. DA Davidson reiterated its Buy rating in April, noting that shares trade at "just ~3x EV/CY27 Rev or ~13x EV/CY27 FCF for mid-20s ARR growth," representing "a ~50-60% discount to similar growth / profile SaaS peers".
Another focus will be Avepoint’s efforts to reduce Microsoft dependency. William Blair noted that "AvePoint’s expansion into non-Microsoft workloads is still nascent and unproven (so unlikely to be a material growth driver)". Any evidence of traction with Google Workspace, Salesforce, or other platforms could help ease concern about the company’s reliance on a single ecosystem.
The company reported strong 2025 results with revenue of $419.5 million and annual recurring revenue of $416.8 million, both up 27% year-over-year.
In the prior quarter, Avepoint beat revenue expectations by 3.4% but missed on earnings per share by 22%, a performance that highlighted execution risk even as top-line momentum remained intact.
Thursday’s results will offer fresh evidence on whether Avepoint’s Microsoft alignment remains a competitive advantage—or whether it has become a ceiling on growth.
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