Key insights
- The article highlights that while Wall Street focuses on large-cap tech, small-cap stocks, represented by the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB), are becoming increasingly attractive. With improving earnings outlooks and comparatively lower valuations, small caps present a strong buy candidate. The author suggests that the potential for higher upside in unprofitable, growth-oriented small companies makes them particularly appealing in a potential bull market rally, contrasting with the current large-cap tech dominance.
Everyone on Wall Street is watching Nvidia, Apple, and the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. It's understandable, given that the "Magnificent Seven" stocks have generated huge returns over the past three years.
The part that few people are paying attention to right now, though, is the other end of the market cap spectrum. Small caps and the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB +2.43%) have become legitimately attractive investment options right now. This fund is up 25.5% over the past year, beating the 22.7% return of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF over the same period, even as large-cap tech is roaring.
The improving earnings outlook for this segment, along with comparatively attractive valuations, makes this a strong buy candidate over the next several months.
This fund tracks the CRSP U.S. Small Cap Index, which covers roughly the 85th to 98th percentile of U.S. market cap.
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That methodology accomplishes two things: It has a median market cap of over $10 billion, well above the $4 billion median market caps of the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF and the Vanguard S&P Small Cap 600 ETF. That gives this fund much more of a large-cap tilt.
The S&P 600 index also uses a profitability screen for inclusion, whereas the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF methodology does not. If you feel small caps are going to rally, I personally would not want the quality criteria in place. Unprofitable companies are generally more growth-oriented and have greater upside potential in a bull-market rally.
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The potential of small caps is keyed on earnings and valuations. Small-company stocks are seeing earnings growth rates accelerate. That trend is likely to continue. In 2027, the group is forecast to grow earnings by 18.3%, compared with a 17.3% growth rate for large caps.
On top of that, the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF trades at a price/earnings (P/E) multiple of 21.6. That's a discount of more than 20% compared to the 27.4 multiple for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.
Whenever you can get a high double-digit earnings growth rate that's higher than that of the S&P 500 and trades for roughly 20% cheaper, you have to pay attention.
Small-caps haven't necessarily been an investor's best friend over the past several years. But if you look at the underlying fundamentals, that reputation is about to change.