Been digging into Applied Optoelectronics Inc again the last few days and honestly not sure what to make of it.
Feels like this stock always shows up when anything data center related gets hot. I remember the last time it ran hard and then just completely fell apart once demand cooled off. So I am a bit cautious here.
With all the AI stuff going on, I get the argument. More data, more bandwidth, more need for optics. Makes sense on the surface. But this space has burned people before so I am trying not to just chase the story.
What I can’t really figure out is whether AAOI is actually in a better spot now, or if this is just another one of those runs where everyone piles in and then it fades again.
Also not sure how to think about competition here. Seems like bigger players and even the hyperscalers themselves have a lot of control, which makes me wonder how much upside smaller guys really get.
Curious if anyone here is actually following this closely or even holding. Would be interested to hear both bull and bear cases.
I am on the sidelines for now, just watching and trying not to FOMO into it.