Key insights
- The author discusses unexpected market rotations following the Iran conflict, specifically the outperformance of energy and defense stocks (XOM, OXY, LMT, RTX) and the underperformance of airlines (DAL, SUAL) due to rising jet fuel costs. The key question is whether this rotation is a short-term reaction to geopolitical events or a longer-term structural shift. A ceasefire could reverse some gains, but increased military spending may sustain the defense sector.
Ngl i was completely unprepared for how fast the rotation happened. $XOM SCVX $OXY just kept going up every single day while my other positions bled. Hormuz shuts down and suddenly every energy stock i ignored for 2 years is printing. Defense same thing. $LMT $RTX quietly ripping while everyone panics about the broader market. Governments rewriting military budgets in real time and somehow this surprised people?? And then airlines lol. $DAL $SUAL got destroyed. Jet fuel basically doubled. Saw the debate on Blossom too, some guys were rotating everything into energy, others just went cash. Honestly both made sense at the time. My question is where do you think capital flows from here. ceasefire happens tomorrow, do energy and defense give back everything? or is this a longer structural shift regardless of what happens in the Middle East? genuinely don't know the answer on this