Key insights
- Brazil's orange crop forecast for 2026/27 is down 12.9% due to disease and climate, potentially impacting orange juice futures. While Brazil is a major exporter, the limited direct impact on US equity markets warrants a slightly bearish score due to potential commodity price increases.
Investing.com -- Brazil’s 2026/27 orange crop in the main producing regions of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states is projected to decline 12.9% from the prior season to 255.20 million 40.8-kg boxes, according to research group Fundecitrus on Friday.
Brazil is the world’s largest orange juice exporter.
The decrease is attributed to natural biennial production cycles, climate conditions and the spread of greening disease, Fundecitrus said in its first forecast for the harvest.
Greening disease, which lowers orchard productivity, now impacts 47.6% of orange trees in the citrus belt, based on Fundecitrus data.
Output will drop due to fewer fruits per tree and increased premature fruit drop, which will outweigh benefits from heavier fruit weight and more productive trees.
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