Key insights
- The BOJ's Yen intervention, while seemingly positive for global markets initially, poses risks. Strengthening Yen could increase Japanese treasury yields, potentially triggering US treasury yield increases, carry trade unwinding, and global contagion. Despite negative macro conditions (high inflation, low consumer savings), the market's positive reaction may be short-lived as underlying economic pressures remain.
BOJ decided to buy up the Yen today, reducing USDJPY from 160 to 156 almost instantly. How is this a good thing though? Strengthening the yen further pushes up Japan's own treasury yields which are already at historically high levels. And this theoretically should weigh on both their markets and on global markets due to: 1. rising US treasury yields as BOJ sells treasuries, 2. carry trade unwind as the yen strengthens, and 3. contagion.
But so far, Nikkei and global markets are reacting like this is great news. Dow and Russell are up 1-2% and Nasdaq has recovered morning losses despite other pretty catastrophic macro conditions - inflation is at 3 year highs, consumer savings and spending is at multi year lows, crude at multi decade highs, etc.
All of this negativity is undone simply by the BOJ buying up the yen?