Key insights
- The author expresses skepticism about AST SpaceMobile's ability to meet its ambitious 2026 satellite launch targets. They believe the stock is currently overvalued and priced for perfection, making it vulnerable to a correction if the company fails to achieve its goals. Potential support levels are identified at $80, $70-75, and $50. The author anticipates a pullback, possibly in late summer, as it becomes clear the targets are unlikely to be met.
I like AST SpaceMobile but their 2026 targets are a bit optimistic. I have a small position, but nothing substanial.
They’re hoping to launch 45–60 satellites by the end of the year. So far there’s only 6 in orbit, with the last launch in December. They haven't launched anything yet this year and its mid March (supposedly one is coming soon however). Getting to 50 in less than a year seems almost impossible without everything going perfectly.
Also it’s kind of weird how hard it is to find a clear plan. There’s a lot of hype about partnerships and long term goals but basically nothing about how many launches are actually scheduled or how many satellites per launch. If they were confident you’d think they’d be proud and more transparent.
Stock wise it’s already priced for perfection. It went from like 56 in November to 95 recently. The support levels I’m watching if it starts pulling back are around 80, then 70–75, and maybe 50 if it really resets.
My guess - they make progress, but won’t hit the 2026 target. Stock probably drops, maybe tests the 70s. That’d be where I’d feel good about adding more. When does it pull back? IDK, probably later summer I guess, when its obvious they wont meet their targets. Maybe earlier if big setbacks occur.
Not saying the company won’t work out, the tech and partners are legit, but the timeline is super aggressive.
What do you guys think? Anyone actually tracking their 2026 launches?