Key insights
- Goldman Sachs reports a 66% YoY rebound in global debt issuance in April, driven by corporate investment grade and high yield issuance. They maintain Buy ratings on SPGI and MCO, anticipating ratings revenue growth from debt refinancing, M&A recovery, and private credit expansion. This suggests a moderately bullish outlook for these specific financial services companies and potentially for broader market activity if debt issuance continues to support economic growth.
Investing.com -- Global debt issuance volumes grew 66% year-over-year in April following a 2% decline in March, according to Goldman Sachs. The rebound was driven by strong corporate investment grade and high yield issuance related to hyperscaler AI infrastructure financing, M&A activity and debt refinancing requirements.
Year-to-date, global debt issuance volumes are up 13% compared to the same period last year. Goldman Sachs said the recovery could benefit ratings revenue growth at S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) and Moody's (NYSE: MCO) if the recent volatility in issuance levels subsides.
The firm forecasts ratings revenue at both companies to grow 7% in 2026. Goldman Sachs noted that private credit, which is not included in standard debt issuance tracking, may contribute to ratings revenue growth as investors seek independent credit assessments amid heightened scrutiny of private credit stress.
Goldman Sachs maintained Buy ratings on S&P Global and Moody's, citing expectations of medium-term ratings revenue strength from a debt refinancing pipeline, M&A volume recovery and private credit growth. The firm also expects compounding earnings per share growth in the low-to-mid teens for both companies.