MDAI: The first time I've run into institutional selling and it's making me question my thesis.

I have been doing a deep dive on Spectral AI (MDAI) and wanted to get the community's thoughts. I really thought the stock would jump yesterday upon FDA approval announcement but has actually dropped since the announcement. Here is everything I have found. Is this a genuine buying opportunity or am I missing something?

What just happened

Spectral AI received FDA De Novo clearance for the DeepView AI burn wound imaging system on May 21, 2026, verified directly on the FDA's public database (DEN250028). It is the first and only FDA-cleared AI device for burn wound healing prediction in the United States. There is no direct competition. The current standard of care is literally a surgeon looking at a wound and guessing. DeepView more than doubles physician diagnostic accuracy in clinical trials.

So why has the stock dropped on genuinely good news?

This appears to be structured institutional selling from a hedge fund called Hudson Bay Capital, which holds warrants to purchase shares at $2.51, slightly above the current price. They received these warrants as part of a PIPE financing deal that kept the company funded while awaiting FDA clearance. With clearance now granted, they appear to be exercising warrants and selling into the volume event. This is legal, expected, and critically, finite.

Yesterday's session saw 6.7M shares trade against a normal daily average of 819K. That is 8x normal volume in a $0.15 price range. The price did not collapse. That suggests buyers absorbed nearly everything sellers threw at the market. Is the overhang already clearing faster than expected?

The case for buying here

At $2.40 the market cap is approximately $76M. Here is what you are getting for that:

• The only FDA-cleared AI burn wound diagnostic in the US * Up to $150M BARDA government contract with 30 subsidised initial placements already lined up * UK and Gulf commercial sales expected late 2026 * A $14.7B combined addressable market in burns and diabetic foot ulcers alone * Zero direct competition, no predicate device exists * Pre-clearance analyst price target of $4.67, which will almost certainly be revised upward now

The company is pre-commercial revenue but not pre-validated. 340 billion pixels of clinical data. Breakthrough Device Designation since 2018. $282M of cumulative government investment in the technology.

The risks I can see, and this is where I want your input

• Cash is thin at $11.7M, further capital raises are possible and would be dilutive * Hudson Bay warrant overhang of approximately 4-5M shares continues to create selling pressure near $2.51 until fully absorbed * Commercial execution is completely unproven, FDA clearance does not guarantee hospital adoption * Reimbursement pathway through CMS takes time, typically 1-3 years for full national coverage * There is also a shareholder vote today on authorising the full 8M share Hudson Bay issuance, the outcome of which could move the price either way * This is realistically a 12-24 month thesis, not a next-week trade

The question

Does $76M market cap make sense as an entry point for the only cleared AI diagnostic in a $14.7B addressable market, backed by $150M in government contracts, with what appears to be temporary institutional selling suppressing the price? Or is the dilution risk and commercial execution uncertainty enough to stay away at this price?

Has anyone else been watching this one? What am I missing?

Not financial advice, do your own due diligence.