Key insights
- Poland forecasts 3.6% GDP growth in 2026 but anticipates a rising public debt-to-GDP ratio. The Ministry of Finance cites the Middle East conflict as a key risk factor. While seemingly localized, persistent geopolitical instability can indirectly impact global supply chains and investor sentiment, creating a slight drag on US equities.
Investing.com -- Poland expects economic growth to reach 3.6% in 2026, according to a baseline scenario prepared by the Ministry of Finance, the ministry said on Tuesday.
The Polish government on Tuesday adopted the draft projections for 2026 to 2030.
Real gross domestic product is forecast to grow by 3.6% in 2026, and the general government deficit is forecast to be reduced by 0.5 percentage points and reach 6.8% of GDP, the ministry said.
In subsequent years, the impact on inflation would be negligible, but real GDP growth would remain lower in the next two years by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, and then the shock would fade away, it said.
The public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase to 65.1% of GDP this year, from 59.7% in 2025.
The main risk factor for net spending growth in 2026 is the impact of the war in the Middle East on the economic situation in Poland and its surrounding areas, the ministry said in a statement, according to a Reuters report.
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