Key insights
- The author expresses concern that the stock market is irrationally exuberant, baking in multiple "peace deals" related to a US-Israel-Iran conflict. They believe high valuations and excessive optimism are driving the market, even in the face of potential negative news. This suggests a bearish outlook, implying a possible correction if geopolitical realities worsen or earnings fail to justify current prices.
How many “Peace Deals” has the stock market baked in??? I get that corporate earnings have been good but this is ridiculous. April 8: Markets surged following the initial announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Israel, and Iran
April 13: Stocks rallied as markets remained hopeful that the global economy could avoid a worst-case scenario
April 14–15: Stocks rebounded higher as ceasefire holds
April 16: S&P 500 crossed the 7,100 threshold for the first time after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open"
April 17: A record-setting rally was fueled by optimism surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.
April 21: Markets edged higher after President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire
April 22: U.S. stocks hit record closing highs following reports of an extended ceasefire
May 4–5: Global stocks rallied on hope that a total ceasefire would hold
May 6: Markets rose on reports that a memorandum of understanding was nearing completion to end the conflict
At this point I honestly think you could announce that there will be global catastrophe next week from a comet impact and the stock market would cheer the news and go….you guessed it!!!! UP!!! Guess there’s a lot of folks chasing forward PE ratios that are in the 50s plus!