Key insights
- SpaceX stock is experiencing increased volatility post-IPO, with options traders anticipating a 10% move next week. Potential inclusion in major stock indexes starting Monday could drive demand, as index-tracking funds typically buy shares ahead of such events. The upcoming release of analyst research reports from underwriters, following the IPO quiet period, may also provide further price catalysts and shape Wall Street's outlook.
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Volatility has come for SpaceX.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) closed Thursday, the final session of the week, at $185, over 40% above their IPO price but off record highs of around $225. Options traders see the stock moving 10% in either direction next week through Friday, suggesting the stock could hit a low of $166 or to rise to about $204.
SpaceX could be added to major indexes and the funds that track them starting next week.
Events generally expected by investors could induce more action in the coming sessions. A pair of major index providers, Center for Research in Security Prices, or CRSP, and S&P Dow Jones Indices could add the stock to some of their indexes as soon as Monday, and others—such as LSEG's FTSE Russell and MSCI—could do so by the end of the month.
The days leading up to index inclusion tend to boost stock prices as funds tracking those indexes buy shares. That helpful hand might materialize next week. There is one other catalyst to watch: research reports, which, when paired with price targets, can give some measure of Wall Street's outlook for and reasoning regarding a stock.
Aside from Oppenheimer's early initiation report—which set a $190 price target—there isn't a lot of sell-side coverage on the stock right now, but the first wave of initiation reports could also land as soon as next week. (Morningstar, which isn't a bank, published a comparatively bearish outlook ahead of the IPO.)
Underwriters typically observe a 10-day quiet period after the pricing of an IPO before publishing analyst reports.1 Since SpaceX's IPO priced on June 11, analysts at underwriting banks would be free to start publishing their research on Monday.