Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight on Eli Lilly stock, sees upside

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and $1,344.00 price target on Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY). The firm sees approximately 7% upside to 2026 estimates for the company’s Mounjaro and Zepbound products. The stock has surged 48% over the past year to $1,125.27, trading near its 52-week high of $1,149. Analyst consensus remains bullish with targets ranging from $850 to $1,500.

Mounjaro total and new prescriptions for the week ending May 29, 2026 were approximately 756,700 and 353,700, compared with 796,800 and 388,900 the prior week, according to IQVIA data. Zepbound total and new prescriptions were approximately 610,800 and 328,300, versus 659,000 and 360,200 the previous week.

Total prescriptions for Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 franchise, including Mounjaro, Trulicity, Zepbound and Foundayo, were approximately 1,501,900 for the current week, down 6.0% from 1,597,200 the prior week. The firm noted the current week was a Memorial Day holiday week.

IQVIA issued a notice on April 30, 2026 stating it identified a material decrease in prescription volume for Zepbound in the mail channel for the data week ending April 24, 2026, driven by one mail outlet reporting significantly lower-than-typical refill volumes. The material decline in Zepbound mail-channel volume persisted in the data weeks ending May 1, 2026 and May 8, 2026.

Eli Lilly’s total GLP-1 franchise weekly new prescription market share was approximately 59% for the current week, unchanged from the prior week. Total GLP-1 prescriptions for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk grew approximately 32% year-over-year. According to InvestingPro, 18 analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, reflecting confidence in the company’s growth trajectory. For deeper insights, investors can access LLY’s comprehensive Pro Research Report, one of 1,400+ available on the platform.

In other recent news, Eli Lilly and Company announced a significant reduction in its investment plans for a production facility in Germany, cutting $1.5 billion from the original $2.5 billion budget due to proposed healthcare reforms aimed at lowering drug prices. Despite the cutbacks, the facility remains on track to become operational, with 300 employees already hired. Furthermore, Eli Lilly is set to present data from its hematology portfolio at the European Hematology Association Annual Meeting, showcasing the Phase 3 BRUIN CLL-322 study of Jaypirca, which demonstrated a significant improvement in progression-free survival. The company will also present phase 3 clinical trial results for Foundayo and retatrutide at the American Diabetes Association’s Scientific Sessions, revealing that Foundayo showed superior A1C reduction and weight loss compared to other treatments.

Meanwhile, Novartis reported promising early data for its experimental actinium-based drug for prostate cancer, with significant PSA reductions observed in patients previously treated with Pluvicto. The study showed higher response rates in patients who had not received Pluvicto, with over 85% experiencing a substantial decrease in PSA levels. Additionally, TD Cowen has increased its global sales forecast for GLP-1 treatments, expecting sales to reach $150 billion by 2030, driven by higher treatment volumes despite anticipated price reductions. These developments reflect ongoing advancements and strategic adjustments within the pharmaceutical industry.

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