Key insights
- The author suggests geopolitical tensions, specifically the Houthis' involvement in the conflict and potential closure of Bab Al Mandab, could lead to a catastrophic oil supply shock, driving prices to $150+ and triggering a global recession. This scenario is expected to cause a rally in gold and silver as safe-haven assets. The red S&P futures and rising oil prices are bearish signals for US equities.
It seems like the market has shifted from selling gold and silver to holding or buying. S&P futures are red right now, oil is green and gold/silver are slightly green.
The Houthis announced they’ll be joining the war to help Iran which could explain the rise in oil price overnight. Traders may be factoring in war premium for them threatening to close Bab Al Mandab, another strategic chokepoint for shipping connecting Yemen and the Horn of Africa.
If this keeps going the way it is, Iran retaliating for US aggression, Hormuz remaining closed, Bab Al Mandab likely to close, oil, the lifeblood of the world economy, would experience a catastrophic supply shock and could soon hit $150+ a barrel which would send the world into a recession due to unaffordable costs of living.
Prepare to see gold and silver rally soon. If there’s more drop, it’s an opportunity to “buy the dip” before the takeoff. I don’t see the war ending anytime soon nor Iran letting up on the Strait of Hormuz given they are fighting for their survival and their statements of “sending Trump and Netanyahu a historic lesson.”
Not financial advice. Just my opinion.