Key insights
- The author expresses disbelief at the stock market's resilience given the potential for a major geopolitical conflict involving Iran. They highlight the risk of the Strait of Hormuz closure, leading to an energy price shock, and existing vulnerabilities in credit markets and the financial system. The author questions the market's upward trend in the face of these significant risks, suggesting a disconnect between market action and fundamental concerns.
I cannot make sense of the stock markets. The arguments put forth in this article regarding the intractability of keeping the Strait open after an existential attack on the Iranian government are well known. The zealots have planned for this, and they intend to punish the world so that it never happens again. This makes the past two days of trading inexplicable to me. Even if you chant "The market only goes up." One can hardly avoid knowing that it has taken as long as 25 to recover after a crash. Of course, that was after disastrous tariff policies, and this time we have that, plus the energy cost shock to global markets, producers, and consumers. And then there's our teetering credit markets, and AFAICT, a financial system not fully recovered from the strains of the two financial shocks that have already hit in this century. And the dollar, while not shaky, might not survive the government bailing out a real crash.
So what powers the market here? Whence the source of this merchantiel merriment, however long or brief? Or was this just institutional investors following their prescribed and necessary path?