Key insights
- The author draws parallels between the 2000-2008 oil bull market and the current market, suggesting skepticism persists despite potential growth. They plan to gauge the market peak by monitoring retail investor sentiment on platforms like Reddit, using it as a contrarian indicator to time their exit from oil and gas investments. This is a bearish signal, but the timing is uncertain.
Striking similarities to the current day, replace internet with AI and china with india + the rest of the world.
Replace iraq with iran
Replace bush "mission accomplished" with trump " the war is mostly over probably i think"
How to recognize the peak (2029-2031) : Interestingly, the sentiment toward these oil and gas stocks remained skeptical and bearish for the majority of the bull run (2000-2006), Similar to today. By the final years (2007-2008), yahoo investing forums had people posting pictures of their all in oil and gas portfolios, similar to how people today post their portfolios with the same five stocks.
I decided I will wait until reddit is posting pictures of their new age portfolios being all in oil and gas before i sell!