Key insights
- The author speculates on a potential market-moving Truth Social post from Trump regarding a breakthrough in Middle East hostilities, designed to boost the S&P 500. However, given the inconsistency of the claims and the current geopolitical climate, the author questions the reliability of such a signal and its potential impact on the market.
Given WTI futures are approaching $100 (seems to me to be Trump's Truth Social trigger), and the S&P is falling, what are the odds that Trump reveals a "negotiation breakthrough" and "imminent end to hositilities" this weekend that Iran subsequently denies?
Ah, and it looks like Israel has pledged to intensify strikes, and Iran has announced the closure of Hormuz to the US, Israel and their allies AGAIN, despite Trump claiming the US and Iran are exchanging love letters in the background, and despite the complete inconsistency with being expected to believe that the US has a "secret man on the inside", and that the US would announce that secret to the whole world and the IRGC.
Are we still in a world where Monday Truth Social driven S&P calls are a good buy, or has the boy cried wolf too many times?