Key insights
- This post analyzes the performance of stocks previously picked by the WallStreetBets (WSB) community for 2026. It compares their year-to-date returns against the SPY ETF, noting that WSB picks have significantly outperformed SPY. The author predicts this trend will continue, suggesting WSB's stock-picking ability surpasses that of hedge funds. However, the analysis is based on a specific community's picks and past performance, which may not be indicative of future results. The direct influence on the broader US market is limited as it's a retrospective analysis of a specific forum'
First of all, I know we still have over a week till end of Q2, but I'm bored that the stock market is closed today, so I'm posting this a week early.
At the end of 2024, there was a thread here in which people picked their stocks to watch for 2025.
- At the end of 2025, WSB's top 10 picks had an average return of 76%, which beat SPY which returned only 17% in 2025.
So at the end of 2025, another thread was posted here in which people picked their stocks to watch for 2026.
10 stocks were picked based on how many times they were mentioned in that thread. This is how they have performed year to date:
1 ASTS: 8.15% 2 RKLB: 50.36% 3 GOOGL/GOOG: 15.62% 4 AMZN: 5.11% 5 NBIS: 228.22% 6 RDDT: -25.15% 7 MU: 290.28% 8 IREN: 53.88% 9 TSLA: -12.95% 10 PLTR: -29.05%
So that is an average return of 58.45% , compared to SPY's YTD return of 8.93%
With SPY curve this year looks so similar to last year (Jan/Feb peak then March/April bottom from Trump's dump and pump), and we are moving in the same direction as last year, my guess is:
- At the end of 2026, WSB's top 10 picks will have an average return of about 76%, and SPY will has a YTD return of about 17%
WSB has a better track record than hedge funds. If you are still not convinced that we are superior regards, you are missing out on the greatest and easiest generational wealth of your lifetime!