Key insights
- China's aluminium exports surged 16% YoY in May, reaching the highest level since November 2024, driven by Middle East supply issues and higher LME prices. This indicates a tightening global market and potential shifts in commodity flows. While steel exports saw a YoY decline, monthly figures improved. Copper imports remained solid, suggesting continued demand. The rise in Chinese aluminium exports could indirectly impact US industrial metals markets and related supply chains, though the direct influence on US equities is moderate.
Investing.com - China's aluminium and product exports rose 16% year-over-year in May to 632,000 metric tons, the highest level since November 2024, according to Morgan Stanley data released Tuesday. Steel exports declined 2% year-over-year during the same period.
Supply disruptions in the Middle East tightened markets outside China and lifted London Metal Exchange prices, widening the export arbitrage for aluminium. Chinese inventories have begun to decline, particularly as semi-finished product exports increase.
Steel exports in May totaled 10.3 million metric tons, improving 9% month-over-month despite the year-over-year decline, likely reflecting a low base in April. Exports for the first five months of 2026 totaled 44.6 million metric tons, down 8% year-over-year.
China's imports of copper and copper products totaled 446,000 metric tons in May, down 1% month-over-month but up 4% year-over-year. The Yangshan premium ranged between $60 and $75 per metric ton, indicating continued solid physical demand.
Iron ore imports totaled 98 million metric tons in May, down 6% month-over-month and flat year-over-year. Coal imports declined 8% year-over-year but rose 1% month-over-month to 33 million metric tons, with total imports year-to-date reaching 183 million metric tons, down 3% year-over-year.