Key insights
- The post argues that geopolitical events and market volatility have limited impact on 401k investments due to passive investing and automated contributions. Significant withdrawals would only occur during a severe recession when individuals need funds for basic necessities. This suggests a degree of resilience in equity markets due to the stability of retirement savings, but a major economic downturn could still trigger substantial selling pressure.
This is just another post about why nothing matters, even an oil shock and a war in the Middle East. There are very few people ”actively managing” their 401k by any definition of that phrase. You might imagine large swaths of the population pulling out all of their retirement savings when something bad happens, but it ain’t so.
When you see large swings in the stock market indices it is typically during low volume trading sessions. The automated investments are still coming and very few people are “heading for the hills”.
If we have a full on recession or worse and people actually need to pull out to get money for food and shelter then that is a different story. But whether or not the Strait of Hormuz is open or not on any given day really doesn’t matter.