Key insights
- The author observes market resilience despite geopolitical tensions and AI spending concerns, noting the S&P 500's proximity to highs and quick bounces on positive news. They suggest the market may be poised for another leg up, drawing parallels to recognizing patterns in baseball. The post invites discussion on whether this is a genuine rebound or a temporary bounce before further downside.
Was thinking about this after the rough start to the year.
Between AI spending concerns and the Middle East tensions (especially the oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz situation), it felt like the market had every reason to keep dropping. But it hasn’t… at least not as much as you’d expect.
What’s interesting to me is how quickly stocks bounce on even slightly positive headlines. Feels like the market wants to go higher.
A couple things I’ve been thinking about:
- S&P is still ~6% off highs, so not a full correction
- Not many stocks are truly “oversold” yet
- Historically, markets tend to recover pretty well after geopolitical events
It kind of reminds me of when you start noticing patterns in a baseball game, start understanding the signs of what the pitcher is going to throw, like once you see it, you can’t unsee it and you start hitting out of the park.
Curious what others think: Are we setting up for another leg up this year? Or is this just a temporary bounce before more downside?