Key insights
- A BofA survey indicates a significant portion of investors believe conditions for Fed rate hikes are either met or will be if core PCE inflation rises further, even with a stable labor market. This reinforces the hawkish signals from the recent FOMC minutes, suggesting a potential shift in Fed policy that could negatively impact US equities as borrowing costs increase.
Investing.com -- More than half of investors surveyed by Bank of America believe conditions for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike have either already been met or would be triggered if core inflation continues rising, regardless of labor market conditions.
The survey revealed that 14% of investors think the conditions for rate hikes have already been satisfied. Additionally, 38% said the Fed would move to raise rates if core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation climbs above 3.5% to 4%, irrespective of the unemployment rate.
Bank of America analysts stated that rate hikes will likely come into play if core PCE reaches 3.5% year-over-year and the unemployment rate falls to 4.0% or lower. This view was shared by 22% of respondents in the latest FX and Rates Sentiment Survey.
The April Federal Open Market Committee minutes showed that rate increases are already under discussion among Fed officials.
On Thursday, market attention will focus on jobless claims data, purchasing managers' indices, housing starts figures and remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin.