Key insights
- Investopedia tracked prices of toasters, tomatoes, and toilet paper to assess tariff impacts. While the Supreme Court ruled some tariffs illegal, others remain. Tomato prices rose significantly post-Iran war due to shipping route closures and increased gas/fertilizer costs. Inflation at grocery stores typically leads to higher interest rates, impacting borrowing costs. The article suggests tariffs and geopolitical events contribute to inflationary pressures, potentially leading to tighter monetary policy.
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Since April 23, 2025, Investopedia has tracked the price of toasters, tomatoes and toilet paper to see if tariffs would cause any changes.
When Investopedia first began tracking, the White House had implemented or proposed tariffs on these three products, as well as sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs on most U.S. trading partners.
Earlier this year, the Supreme Court ruled the majority of President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs illegal. However, tariffs targeting specific items, such as tomatoes or steel and aluminum, were left unchanged.
To track the trajectory of each product's price, Investopedia used the same Amazon listing and visited the same Target and Walmart locations in Dallas, TX, every Wednesday. Prices vary by region and retailer, so this tracker measures price changes rather than exact pricing.
Additionally, store prices may change for reasons other than tariffs. For example, most of the severe price drops observed by Investopedia are the result of retailer deals or sales. This series is not an exact science—it is intended to give you an idea of how tariffs impact pricing.
Inflation at grocery stores not only makes everyday expenses harder to afford, but it also typically leads to higher interest rates. This makes borrowing avenues like credit cards, auto loans and mortgages more expensive.
Since the war with Iran began in late February, the average cost of tomatoes has risen by almost 19%, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Many other food prices have also risen due to surging gas and fertilizer prices after a key shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, was closed.
However, the price of the specific 10-ounce pack of grape tomatoes that Investopedia has been tracking for a year has not increased since the war.
However, other factors have impacted prices, like a 17.09% tariff imposed by the Trump administration in July on tomatoes imported from Mexico.
About 70% of all tomatoes in the U.S. come from Mexico, according to the Florida Tomato Exchange. And after the Mexican tomato tariff was implemented, the price of a 10-ounce pack spiked.
While these prices have fallen since July, the cost of these tomatoes on Amazon was about 17% higher on April 22, 2026, than a year prior. At Target, the price of an equivalent grape tomato product grew by 4%. However, the price at Walmart did fall by about 2%.
The toaster ovens Investopedia tracked from "Black + Decker" all contained stainless steel. A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum was imposed in February 2025 and later ramped up to a 50% import tax in July.
The result? An increase of about $10 for a similar 'Black + Decker' toaster oven at both Amazon and Walmart.
Investopedia had to change the 'Black + Decker' toaster model being tracked at Walmart, as the initial model chosen was removed from shelves and replaced with a new model in July at the in-person store used for tracking.
Although the previous model, which can still be shipped to an in-store location, is now $10 more than it was a year ago.
At Target, the price of a 'Black + Decker' toaster oven has remained the same over the past year.
A 25-year dispute between Canada and the United States over softwood lumber, which is in part used to create toilet paper, led to duties on the lumber last year.
In April 2025, the Department of Commerce announced it would more than double the 14.4% duty on Canadian softwood lumber. The trade tax would later take effect in August. Although starting in the summer, Canadian lumber duties are expected to fall by 10 percentage points to about 25%.
In July, Procter & Gamble, which produces Charmin toilet paper and receives a third of its softwood lumber from Canada, said it would raise prices in early 2026 on about a quarter of its products due to tariffs.
However, apart from some blips in Amazon prices, Investopedia found that the price of a 6-Pack of Charmin toilet paper has remained the same across all three retailers over the past year.
Investopedia found that Amazon's pricing was generally more volatile than that of its in-store competitors. This aligns with previous reports on Amazon's dynamic pricing. For example, a recent report from Decodo, an online data-gathering platform, ranked Amazon as the top retailer for volatile pricing, with Walmart second and Target fifth.
Investopedia also noticed that tomato prices changed more frequently than those of the other products. This trend is relatively common: Food prices are among the most volatile of any consumer spending category, behind gas and household energy, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
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