Key insights
- This opinion piece suggests a contrarian short position on SpaceX, arguing that Blue Origin's rocket failure is a deliberate strategy to inflate SpaceX's valuation. The author posits that Blue Origin has hidden financial ties to SpaceX and is using the incident to pump SpaceX shares before selling them to fund its own development. If Blue Origin demonstrates progress, SpaceX's 'monopoly premium' could be unwound, leading to a valuation reset.
I’m shorting SpaceX tomorrow because everyone is looking at this backwards.
My theory is simple: Blue Origin secretly has massive SpaceX exposure through funds, banks, private vehicles, billionaire nonsense, or some other rich-person plumbing that regular people are not allowed to understand.
So Blue Origin sacrifices one rocket. The rocket blows up. Everyone says Blue Origin is dead.
SpaceX pumps because it looks like the only serious launch company left.
Blue Origin’s hidden SpaceX exposure goes vertical.
They shorted their own reputation to go long SpaceX hype.
I am shorting SpaceX because this is the most obvious “everyone piles into the winner after the loser explodes” trap I’ve ever seen.
The Trade SpaceX does not need to fail. Blue Origin just needs to prove the gap is smaller than people think. If Blue Origin gets a working rocket, better launch cadence, or a real contract win, the story changes fast. SpaceX goes from “monopoly on the future” to “best company in a brutal, capital-heavy industry.” That is still good. It is just not worth the same multiple.
Catalyst Blue Origin sells into the SpaceX pump. Then it uses that money to accelerate development. Then one day they hit a milestone and everyone suddenly remembers governments and corporations do not like depending on one launch provider forever. That is when the monopoly premium starts coming out of SpaceX.
Why The Stock Drops SpaceX is priced like the future is already decided. If Blue Origin closes the tech gap, that premium gets cut. First you get sell pressure from Blue Origin cashing out. Then you get valuation pressure when the market realizes SpaceX is not the only game in town. That is how the pump becomes the top.
Risks Blue Origin might actually just be bad at rockets.
Also, I cannot prove any of this, because billionaire financial structures are basically dark matter with accountants.
But the logic is there. Blues Origin blows up one rocket, pumps SpaceX, sells the hype, funds the comeback, closes the tech gap, and kills the monopoly narrative. Short SpaceX.
Not financial advice.