Key insights
- The author observes a pattern where countries experiencing a fertility rate drop to 1.9 are followed by significant economic and equity market growth within 16 years. They highlight Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China as examples. With India's fertility rate recently crossing this threshold, the author speculates whether India could experience a similar growth cycle between 2025 and 2039. This is presented as an observation, not a prediction.
Japan crossed 1.9 in 1974. Nikkei went 10x by 1990. World's second largest economy.
South Korea crossed in 1983. KOSPI 10x by 1999. Miracle on the Han River.
Taiwan crossed in 1981. TWSE 20x by 1997. Global tech hub.
China post-1978 reforms, accelerated 1992. Economy 10x by 2008. Fastest growth in history.
Japan/Korea/Taiwan = equity markets. China = GDP growth.
India crossed 1.9 approximately in 2023-2025.
Median age: India 28. China 39. Germany 46. Japan 49.
The 16-year window is 2025-2039. Could India see a similar extended growth cycle?
Not a prediction. Just a pattern I keep seeing. Could be coincidence.
What do you think?
Not investment advice. Academic curiosity only. Consult a SEBI registered advisor before investing.