Key insights
- The author expresses concern about the disconnect between geopolitical risks (US/Israel conflict, oil uncertainty), AI-driven job losses, and the continued rise in the stock market. They highlight the underperformance of software stocks despite earnings beats, suggesting a potential market correction or shift in investor sentiment. The lack of global support for the US/Israel side adds to the author's bearish outlook.
US & Israel are literally at war with Iran, global instability is rising, oil supply is disrupted, and thousands of jobs are being cut because of AI, yet the market is acting like everything is fine.
Indexes keep going up.
CNBC guests are all bullish.
Meanwhile, software stocks are getting hammered as if every SaaS company is shutting down tomorrow. Even “beats” aren’t enough anymore.
It’s hard to understand how we can have:
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A major geopolitical conflict
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No real global support for the US/Israel side
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Oil uncertainty
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AI-driven job losses
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Rising instability
…and still see the market climbing like nothing is happening.
Feels like fundamentals and reality are completely disconnected right now.