Key insights
- An analyst is holding GOOGL calls based on strong cloud growth (63% YoY, 33% margin), a $40B Anthropic investment driving cloud revenue, and anticipated institutional buying via VWAP algorithms. This suggests a bullish outlook for Alphabet, potentially driving the stock towards a $5T market cap, irrespective of near-term macro data.
Good morning everyone. I wanted to share my post-earnings thesis and execution plan for Alphabet following what might be the best quarter in the company's history.
The Position:
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30x GOOGL $300 Calls (Expiring Sept 2026)
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Purchased on July 24, 2025.
With the stock blowing past $375 in the pre-market, these are acting as deep ITM synthetic equity with a Delta approaching 1.0. I originally had a limit order to sell a 10-contract tranche at $385 this morning to de-risk, but after digesting the earnings call and the pre-market tape, I completely canceled the order. Here is why I am holding the entire board to $410+:
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The Cloud Growth is Breaking Models: We were looking for 47-50% YoY Cloud growth to justify the CapEx. They delivered 63% ($20.0B). More importantly, they posted $6.6B in Cloud operating income. That’s a 33% margin. They are proving that their massive AI infrastructure build-out is immediately, wildly profitable.
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The $40B Anthropic Mandate:
The news crossing the wire about the $40B Anthropic investment isn't just a defensive moat against Amazon; it is a structural mandate. It essentially guarantees that future Anthropic models will run natively on Google’s 8th-gen TPUs. Google is forcing their biggest AI competitor to become their most lucrative Cloud customer.
- The Institutional VWAP Grind:
I am completely ignoring today's macro noise (PCE/GDP). Institutions that are underweight on Alphabet cannot buy $400 Billion worth of market cap at the opening bell. They will use VWAP algorithms to scale in over the next 5 to 10 trading days to re-weight their portfolios based on this Anthropic news. I am letting that relentless underlying institutional bid carry these contracts through the $400 psychological barrier and into the $410+ range (which aligns with a $5 Trillion market cap).