Key insights
- The author questions the resilience of the US equity market given geopolitical risks, inflation, and weak jobs data. They suggest that increased money supply may be artificially inflating asset prices. Concerns are raised about high oil prices and the unsustainability of current debt levels, leading to a pessimistic outlook on the SP500. The author's large position in precious metals reflects a bearish view.
We’re at a stage where the U.S. stock market almost feels untouchable.
We have ongoing geopolitical tensions US/Israel-Iran war with no clear resolution, disruptions in oil supply, weak monthly job reports, likely higher inflation ahead, and some concerns around the private credit market.
Given all that, you would expect stocks to be lower but they’re not.
One thought I had is whether this can be explained by the increase in money supply over the past 5 years. If there’s significantly more currency in circulation, maybe asset prices are being supported not because they’re truly increasing in value, but because the purchasing power of the dollar is declining.
In other words, stocks aren’t necessarily going up in real terms, the currency is just losing value faster, which keeps nominal prices elevated.
I’m also wondering why precious metals like gold and silver aren’t rising as much as you might expect in this kind of environment.
I wonder if even stagflation wouldn’t affect sp500 much. Current -3.84% ytd.
Current position: Gold and silver 92%
Thought?
Ps dang I feel like I rage baited everyone for that I apologize. I have been holding gold for 8+ months. About 46% gain. Recently went really high after 5 days pause announcement.
Pps tell me how how 110+ oil is sustainable. With the current debt we can’t print our recession away. 10 yr bond rates scream. Maybe I’m just too pessimistic but I don’t know what I don’t know. I’d love to be educated. Gracias 🙏