Key insights
- The author proposes a long-short strategy (short WTI, long Brent) based on the speculative thesis that Trump might impose US oil export restrictions to control domestic gas prices amid geopolitical tensions. This could widen the WTI-Brent spread significantly. The strategy hedges against resolution/escalation risk but carries potential losses if the thesis fails or WTI becomes more expensive than Brent. The overall impact on US equities is slightly bearish due to potential inflationary pressures from higher Brent prices.
Without US export restrictions, oil could well go into the 150-200 range by June/July if there is no ceasefire.
Trump cannot afford the political loss of US gas prices going above $5 a gallon, but he also cannot afford the political loss of agreeing to Iranian demands.
Whats his only way out? Export restrictions on US oil when things go south.
WTI falls, Brent skyrockets.
The WTI-Brent spread usually trades around $5-7. This could raise that spread to over $50.
Strat: short WTI, long Brent.
Hedges out resolution/escalation risk, and sure some losses are likely if the thesis doesn't pan out, but overall looking at maybe 5-10% loss if the gap closes?
The only real risk I can see to material losses is if somehow wti becomes more expensive than Brent.
Anything I've missed?
P.S. I'm aware the thesis is by no means likely and incredibly speculative, just wondering whether the mechanics would be the right way to trade it.