Key insights
- UAE real estate transactions have significantly declined since the start of the Middle East conflict, with values down 51% MoM in early March, according to Goldman Sachs. This drop is more pronounced than previous disruptions like the Dubai floods. Declines are seen in both transaction values and volumes, particularly in the secondary market and off-plan segments. While not directly impacting US equities, it highlights the potential for geopolitical events to disrupt global markets and potentially impact sentiment.
Investing.com-- Transaction activity in the UAE real estate market has weakened sharply since the start of the ongoing Middle East conflict, according to Goldman Sachs, as heightened regional uncertainty begins to weigh on property demand.
The conflict, now entering its third week, has rattled markets across the region and driven volatility in energy and financial assets. Against that backdrop, Goldman analysts led by Harsh Mehta said transaction data for early March shows a clear slowdown in property activity.
Goldman Sachs said overall transaction values in the first half of March were down 31% year over year and 51% month over month since the start of the conflict.
The drop appears steeper than in several previous disruptions affecting the market. During the Dubai floods in April 2024, transactions declined about 19% month over month, while during the Iran-Israel conflict in November 2024 they fell roughly 32% month over month. In June 2025, transactions declined around 17% month over month.
The weakness became more pronounced in the second week of March. Goldman Sachs said transaction values were down 42% year over year, “largely driven by weakness in the secondary market (down 59% yoy) and mainly in the Villa segment (-89% yoy).”
Volumes also declined sharply during the same period. Goldman said total transaction volumes were down 38% year over year, “largely due to the off-plan segment (-52% yoy) and mainly in apartments (-59% yoy).”
Median apartment prices per square foot were down 3% year over year and 8% month over month for the period from March 1 to March 12. Villa prices remained higher on an annual basis, rising 16% year over year, although they were down 2% compared with the prior month.
The average price per square foot across property types was up 1% year over year but down 7% month over month during the same period.
Shares of Emaar Properties PJSC (DFM:EMAR), one of the UAE’s largest real estate developers and the builder behind landmark projects such as the Burj Khalifa and Dubai Mall, are down nearly 40% since the start of the conflict as investors reassess the outlook for the region’s property sector.