Key insights
- RBC report highlights increasing concentration in the S&P 500, with the top 10 companies, particularly tech and AI stocks like Nvidia, now representing over 40% of the index's value. This 'Great Narrowing' suggests reduced diversification benefits and increased vulnerability to the performance of a few dominant companies, potentially posing a risk to passive investors.
For decades, investors have been urged to buy into broad, diversified market index funds like the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY 0.56%). That way, your money is spread across a wide variety of companies, industries, and risk exposures. But if you look closely, those benefits aren't nearly as strong as they used to be. In fact, a recent report from Royal Bank of Canada should have every investor concerned about the safety of their own money.
The cautionary report from Royal Bank of Canada, released less than two months ago, gets straight to the point. "Over the past decade, the S&P 500, which has historically been viewed as a balanced cross-section of the U.S. economy, has slowly transformed into a tech- and AI-dominated index," the report begins. "We believe this 'Great Narrowing' should be top of mind for investors."
The research observes how tech stocks and AI stocks now make up a historic percentage of the overall index's value. From 1990 to 2015, the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 index accounted for 17.7% to 23.4% of the index's total value. In 2020, however, that percentage increased to 28.6%. Today, that figure is even higher at an astounding 40.7%!
"Many investors believe an S&P 500 fund offers wide diversification," Royal Bank of Canada concludes. "But, more than $40 of every $100 invested flows into just 10 companies, creating a feedback loop where passive inflows disproportionately support the largest stocks, increasing their weights and reinforcing performance leadership regardless of fundamentals."
None of this means that markets are necessarily overvalued, and index funds still offer high levels of instant diversification. But if you're investing in index funds thinking that the fate of a single company won't tank your portfolio, think again. The AI growth stock Nvidia, for example, now accounts for 8% of the S&P 500's value! Your money likely isn't as diversified as you once believed.
Now might be a great time to see what it would take to truly diversify your portfolio to account for this concern.