Key insights
- This opinion piece projects that the first $100 trillion market cap company could emerge by 2058, based on historical market cap growth outpacing inflation and a cubic growth trajectory observed in recent tech giants like Apple and NVIDIA. While an interesting thought experiment, it does not provide immediate leading indicators for near-term US equity market movements.
I was thinking about market cap growth of the large company seems to be singificantly higher than average inflation over the last two decades
|Year|Leader|Market cap| |:-|:-|:-| |2006|Exxon Mobil|$0.447T| |2011|Exxon Mobil|$0.406T| |2016|Apple|$0.609T| |2021|Apple|$2.902T| |2024|Apple|$3.766T| |2025|NVIDIA|$4.533T| |2026|NVIDIA|$5.146T|
U.S. CPI inflation of about 2.5% CAGR. In real inflation-adjusted terms, the “largest company” got about 7× bigger.
The recent take off of Apple and Nvidia actually creates more of less of a cubic trajactory of market cap growth, and a simple model can give the following prediction if growth trajectory doesn't slow down.
|Year|Cubic predicted largest-company market cap| |:-|:-| |2030|~$9.1T| |2040|~$26.9T| |2050|~$59.7T| |2058|~$99.8T| |2060|~$112.0T| |2070|~$188.2T| |2080|~$293.0T|
Anyways, a simple fun thought experiment for everyone!