QQQ still has room to run; A historical comparison

QQQ has been on an absolute tear lately, so I ran the numbers on historical 10+ day winning streaks to see what usually precedes the first red day.

My initial thought was these massive runs end with a sudden macro shock, a spike in yields, or a wave of panic selling. The data shows the exact opposite: they end purely on buyer exhaustion. Here is the data from the 8 historical 10+ day streaks between 2009 and 2021. The metrics below are taken on the final day of the streak (the day before the drop):

| End Date | Length | Streak Return | RSI | Volume (vs 20-day avg) | VIX | VIX Δ% | TNX (10-yr) | TNX Δ% | (Triangle means change, also putting a chart on reddit sucks)

|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| 2009-07-23 | 12 | +13.4% | 76.8 | 1.40x | 23.4 | -0.2% | 3.71% | +4.4% |

| 2010-03-12 | 11 | +5.8% | 74.3 | 0.81x | 17.6 | -2.7% | 3.71% | -0.3% |

| 2013-07-15 | 14 | +7.5% | 71.5 | 0.62x | 13.8 | -0.4% | 2.56% | -1.7% |

| 2015-02-24 | 10 | +4.0% | 71.3 | 0.67x | 13.7 | -6.0% | 1.99% | -3.5% |

| 2017-07-20 | 10 | +4.7% | 66.1 | 0.90x | 9.6 | -2.2% | 2.27% | -0.1% |

| 2019-12-26 | 11 | +4.5% | 80.8 | 0.85x | 12.7 | -0.2% | 1.90% | -0.3% |

| 2020-12-08 | 11 | +6.2% | 70.8 | 0.66x | 20.7 | -2.9% | 0.91% | -1.6% |

| 2021-11-05 | 10 | +5.5% | 78.6 | 1.19x | 16.5 | +6.7% | 1.45% | -4.7% |

| **2026-04-14** | **10** | **+8.9%** | **68.0** | **0.77x** | **18.4** | **-4.0%** | **4.26%** | **-1.0%** |

| **New Average** | 11.0 | +6.7% | 73.1 | 0.87x | 16.3 | -1.3% | 2.53% | -1.0% |

If you look at the averages, a very clear picture emerges of where we sit right now:

• Stronger Return, Less Overbought: This is the biggest takeaway. The current streak gained nearly 9% (vs. the historic 5.9% average), yet the RSI is only at 68.0 (cooler than the historic 73.8 average). The rally has been a steady grind rather than a parabolic, blow-off top. * Classic Exhaustion Volume (0.77x): We are well below the 20-day average for volume, which is actually lower than the historic streak average (0.87x). Buyers are running out of gas, matching the classic exhaustion signal. * No Fear Catalyst: VIX is slightly elevated at 18.4, but it dropped 4% today. Fear is receding, not spiking. * The Yield Shift: The 10-year yield (TNX) is sitting at 4.26%, obviously reflecting a different macro regime than the 2009-2021 runs. However, the behavior is the same: yields drifted downward (-1.0%) into this streak, meaning no rate-spike catalyst is threatening the run right now.

Note: Past returns are not always indicative of future returns, we are in unprecedented territory with the war and trump. Also RSI can remains overbought for days or weeks. Surprisingly the rally during liberation day was only 9 consecutive days and had a much larger drop before the rally. This is not financial advice I am not your financial advisor.

I used ai to edit BUT no ai model has direct api access to this data like I do, i had to connect it. Also I chose what indicators to track not the ai model, the ai model was basically just an editor and made the chart look somewhat better.

Dark pool short interest is at 72.99%, this can exacerbate rallies due to short covering but if theres bad news the bottom falls out, meaning either take profits or hedge. I would not recommend shorting but holding cash.

I think tomorrow is likely to continue going up, might post about the options data but I am tired, if the comments arent annoying saying, thanks AI or shit commenting ill do it.

TL;DR: The current market is perfectly mirroring historical buyer exhaustion, but doing so with stronger returns and less overbought technicals. If you are buying aggressive downside protection expecting a volatile crash, you're likely going to get burned by IV crush. History says we get a shallow, low-volume, mean-reverting dip (-0.5% to -2.5%) before the broader trend resumes.