Been looking at commodities and this keeps coming up… does cotton actually follow oil or is that just something that kinda sounds right but isn’t really true
on paper it makes sense right oil up, costs go up (fuel, transport etc) oil up, polyester gets more expensive, maybe some shift back to cotton
but when i actually look at charts it doesnt seem clean at all… sometimes they move together, sometimes totally different
so im trying to understand what the real relationship is here:
is there actually a structural link or just occasional correlation does cotton lag oil through input costs or is it mostly climate & demand doing its own thing
also wondering if this only shows up in certain regimes… like high oil environments or supply shocks
anyone here actually trade cotton or dug into this properly?
feels like its either a) a macro-linked trade people underestimate b) mostly independent and oil isnt that relevant
curious how people see it