Key insights
- The U.S. government is refunding tariffs to businesses after a Supreme Court ruling, but consumers are unlikely to directly benefit. While some companies like Costco may offer indirect refunds through lower prices, the complexity of supply chains makes it difficult to determine the exact tariff burden on consumers. This may create a slight drag on consumer spending.
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Consumers who paid tariffs through their purchases may not recover their money, even as businesses begin filing tariff refunds with the federal government.
This week, U.S. Customs and Border Protection started accepting refund requests from companies for tariffs imposed last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In February, the Supreme Court struck down these tariffs.
While the federal government is expected to refund at least $166 billion in tariff revenues, Robert Shapiro, a lawyer specializing in international trade and a partner at Thompson Coburn LLP, said it's unlikely that consumers will see any of the refunds' benefits.
"Consumers won't see this refund directly," said Shapiro.
If you've been waiting to receive a refund on the higher prices you've paid because of the Trump administration tariffs, you're not likely to get that money back. While some retailers have said they plan to issue refunds to consumers, many haven't.
Shapiro points out that since several companies are involved in the supply chain—importers, manufacturers, and retailers—each could have paid a share of the tariffs collected. This can make it hard to determine how much of the tariff the consumer paid.
"In most cases, the consumers are bearing the burden of the tariffs through higher prices, but they can't specifically identify that their money went to pay a particular tariff," said Gregory Germain, a professor of law at Syracuse University College of Law.
Some companies have said they'll return the refunds to consumers, but their plans vary.
"There may be some businesses that—just like paying a sales tax or something—itemized it [the tariffs] on the receipt saying, 'We're charging $15 for a tariff.' Those customers ... would have a pretty good argument," Germain said.
Costco Wholesale (COST) CEO Ron Vachris has suggested that customers might receive refunds through lower prices, and FedEx (FDX) has said it will issue tariff refunds to consumers and shippers.
Some customers are filing class-action lawsuits to recover what they spent on the tariffs.
"The problem, of course, with class-action suits [is that the] legal fees are really expensive, and they take a big piece of what ... goes to the consumer," Shapiro said.
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