Key insights
- The author expresses a bullish outlook on the US equity market, suggesting that despite some bearish sentiment, the market is not overvalued and remains within a long-term bull channel. They cite increasing flows into stocks relative to gold and bonds since March, and anticipate a potential buying opportunity if the S&P 500 pulls back to around 712, viewing current levels as not indicative of an imminent downturn.
Feel like I’m seeing a lot of people suggesting there’s a downturn coming but I feel like we’re quite a way from that (since 2009 it’s been following the bull channel up minus the Covid hard drop but it regained that within 2 weeks). IMO SPY would need to be near 830+ (15% from where we’re at) to be near overvaluation). Ratio wise SPY to GLD (gold) and SPY to VGSH (bonds) there’s money flowing back into stocks since the Iran war almost correction in March. The market just got on a tear coming out of that (20%+ over 2 months) and was due for a pullback. Also my bias that June usually isn’t a good month for the S&P. Good time to drop some money in if you need to for some intermediate/long term horizon and if SPY drops further to ~712 (6% pullback) be ready for a turn up.
Wish I could post some of my analysis but I don’t have the option to attach images🤷🏼♂️