Key insights
- 10X Genomics' upcoming earnings report is expected to show a sequential revenue decline, but analysts are increasingly optimistic due to the company's potential in AI-driven drug discovery. Stronger AI-related revenue could offset weakness in academic markets facing grant funding challenges. Recent analyst upgrades and price target increases suggest confidence in long-term growth, particularly driven by projects like the STELA spatial biology atlas.
10X Genomics Inc. is set to report first-quarter results after market close Thursday, with analysts expecting the single-cell and spatial biology company to navigate a challenging academic funding environment even as it positions itself to capitalize on surging demand for AI-driven drug discovery.
Analysts expect a loss of 27 cents per share on revenue of $146.5 million, representing a sequential decline from the fourth quarter’s $166 million in sales and wider losses compared with the prior period’s 13-cent loss. Despite the anticipated pullback, EPS estimates have risen 5.26% over the past 60 days, suggesting analysts have grown more optimistic about the company’s trajectory even as near-term headwinds persist.
The Pleasanton, Calif.-based company, which trades at $22.74 with a market capitalization of $2.93 billion, carries a consensus Buy rating from 16 analysts, with a mean price target of $24 implying 5.5% upside. Recent price-target increases from Canaccord Genuity to $32, BofA Securities to $30, and Barclays to $30 reflect growing conviction in the company’s long-term prospects.
What Investors Are Watching
The key question is whether 10X Genomics can offset softness in academic markets—where grant funding challenges have weighed on the broader genomics sector—with accelerating momentum in AI and translational research. William Blair analyst Matt Larew, who upgraded the stock to Outperform in late March, argued that the company is "well positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for large-scale biological datasets to train AI models."
Larew specifically cited 10X’s selection by Bioptimus for STELA, described as "the world’s largest clinically linked spatial biology atlas" profiling up to 100,000 patient specimens, as validation of its Xenium platform’s positioning. While AI-related projects represented a relatively small revenue share in 2025, Larew suggested this vertical could reach "tens of millions" as demand for proprietary biological datasets accelerates.
Investors will also scrutinize early traction for Atera, the company’s new spatial biology platform announced in April, with pre-orders now open and shipments expected to begin in the second half of 2026. The platform aims to deliver whole-transcriptome analysis at single-cell resolution without the trade-offs that have constrained existing spatial technologies.
Profitability will be another focus. The company reached adjusted EBITDA breakeven in recent quarters, and maintaining that trajectory amid revenue pressure would demonstrate operational discipline.
Recent Performance
10X Genomics has beaten revenue expectations for five consecutive quarters, including a 5.2% surprise in the fourth quarter when it reported $166 million in sales against expectations of $157.7 million. The company also posted a 13-cent loss, significantly better than the 22-cent loss analysts had anticipated.
For the full year 2026, management guided to revenue of $600 million to $625 million, representing flat to 4% growth when excluding non-recurring patent settlement revenue from 2025. Whether first-quarter results support that outlook—or suggest conservatism—will shape investor sentiment heading into the year’s second half.
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