Key insights
- The average tax refund increased by $337 in 2026, less than the $1,000 projected. While refunds are the largest since 2009, the increase was smaller than in 2022. Changes to tax laws will continue to impact refunds in future years, influencing consumer spending and economic activity. The expiration of certain tax credits, like the EV charger credit, may also affect consumer behavior.
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At the beginning of the 2026 tax filing season, the White House estimated that the average refund would grow by $1,000. Refunds grew, but not as much as the Trump administration promised.
The "One Big, Beautiful Bill" introduced several new tax breaks this year and expanded previous ones. These tax credits and deductions would result in the "biggest tax refund season ever," the White House said in January.
According to figures released this week, the average refund was $3,276 during the 2026 tax filing season. That is $337, or 11.5% higher than the previous filing season.
The story for taxpayers isn't just the size of this year's refunds. Expanded credits, a larger charitable deduction, and new caps on gambling losses and itemized deductions will all affect returns filed in 2027, meaning planning for next year's taxes should start soon.
Taxpayers in the most recent filing season have, on average, received the largest refund since the IRS began publishing data in 2009. However, it was not the largest year-over-year increase in the average refund. That occurred during the 2022 tax season, when average tax refunds increased by 15.5% to $3,252, largely due to the temporarily expanded Child Tax Credit during the pandemic.
The figures released this week are preliminary figures. The IRS will release updated numbers after taxpayers who requested an extension file later this year, which may shift the average refund.
New tax breaks from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including no tax on tips, overtime, and car loan interest, plus an expanded senior deduction, first applied to 2025 taxes, filed this spring.
More changes from the law take effect for the 2027 filing season:
However, some new tax laws will reduce tax savings, such as limiting deductions for gambling losses. The federal tax credit for installing an EV charger at home also expires June 30, 2026, and federal student debt forgiven through income-driven repayment plans is federally taxable again in 2026, after a broader pandemic-era exclusion lapsed at the end of 2025.
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