Key insights
- The author expresses concern about Visa and Mastercard's long-term prospects due to the rise of alternative payment systems like Open Banking, Bizum, Wero, and PIX. These systems offer potentially cheaper and faster transactions, posing a competitive threat that could erode Visa and Mastercard's market share. This development presents a bearish signal for V and MA.
I recently bought something on eBay and noticed that one of the payment options was "pay directly via bank transfer." After selecting it, a bank selector appeared. I chose my bank, opened my banking app, and confirmed the transaction. This wasn’t my first time using this method; I remember doing something similar when buying a plane ticket from Ryanair. I believe this standard is called "Open Banking."
While this is the norm in the UK, other countries are developing similar solutions: Spain has Bizum, Germany is adopting Wero, and Brazil uses PIX.
Even though I’m not a fan of having so many different payment standards, I can see the appeal. Visa is often expensive and slow, creating a genuine demand for alternative competitors in the market. I have my doubts about the long-term future of Visa, as these competitors will eventually capture significant portions of their market share.