Key insights
- Kaspi (KSPI), a Kazakhstan-based fintech platform, exhibits high ROE and trades at a low earnings multiple. Key risks include concentration in Kazakhstan, regulatory headwinds, and losses from its Turkey expansion. Slower earnings growth relative to revenue growth is also a concern. Overall, the article presents a mixed outlook, with potential upside offset by significant emerging market risks, leading to a slightly negative influence on US equities due to broader EM sentiment.
Been digging into Kaspi (KSPI) – one of the more interesting EM “platform” plays out there.
Quick snapshot (FY 2025): - Revenue KZT 3.1T ($6–8B depending on source) +19% YoY (Yahoo Finance) - Net income KZT 1.1T ($2.1B) +10% YoY (Yahoo Finance) - ROE still absurdly high ~48–70% range depending on period (FinanceCharts) - ~77 transactions per active user/month (crazy engagement) (GlobeNewswire)
Business = payments + marketplace + fintech bundled into one app. Think local monopoly vibes: - Payments TPV +19% YoY - Marketplace revenue +23% YoY - Fintech revenue +20% YoY (Stock Titan)
Stock side: - Trades ~7x earnings in some estimates (stockchase.com) - Some fair value models around ~$107 vs ~$70s price (~30–40% upside) (Simply Wall St)
What’s interesting: - Extremely high ROE business compounding at double digits - Strong ecosystem lock-in (super app, high frequency usage) - Still relatively cheap vs quality (if numbers are sustainable)
What’s not: - Kazakhstan concentration risk (basically the whole story) - Regulatory + rate environment already hitting margins - Turkey expansion currently loss-making (Stock Titan) - Growth slowing a bit (rev +19% but earnings only +10%)
Feels like one of those “too good to be true or just misunderstood EM compounder” setups.
Anyone here own it or have a strong bear case?