Hi all,
Sorry if my english is bad, not my mother tongue 😄
I'm feeling kindda lost in this market. I've made a lot of gains like a lot of people in the last few weeks, and I don't pretend to be particularly good at investing. This is a first for me after 18 months of investing and I feel overwhelmed trying to 'hold' as I have often made the mistake of selling at the beginning of a bull run to secure my gains. Some examples
NBIS : sold at 190$, almost bought shorts at 200$. I didn't believe the stock could go to much higher so soon (but didn't, thank god) AMD : Sold at 210$ after 100% gains as I thought to myself NVidia was an overall better company and I wanted to diversify from AI (I own a few AI stocks already)
So I wanted to make a post auto-evaluating my own portfolio. I do this for myself first, but I'd be glad to get a few feedbacks.
So here it is
Total portfolio value : 52k (started with 25k 18 months ago)
Current unrealised gains : 10k (+25%)
|Stock (strategy)|Position value (+/-)|Target in 2 years (my own calculation)|Commentary| |:-|:-|:-|:-| || |META (Hold long term)|4,2k (-1,4%)|1300$|Started building after earnings fall. Actually one of the only stock I own that isn't going to the moon right now and I feel is deeply undervalued. i believe in meta AI hardware and in its ability to monetize AI on adds| |MU (Got 4 shares. Plan to sell 1 at each flag : 1200 / 1500 x2 / 1750)|4,1k (+191%)|1500$|This one I bought at 80 a year ago. Sold at 250 right before the first earnings blow out thinking it was "already to good to be true". Bought back a few months back at 350 when the stock pulled back for a few days. I don't know if Memory will still be cyclical or not. Plan to sell at target half at target, at least.| |NVidia (Hold long term)|4k (+75%)|356$|Actually the first stock I bought. I sold it, and bought again a few times and decided to hold my position last year. I believe despite the current valorisation that the stock is undervalued regarding the next 2/3 years earnings expectations. I think Nvidia will have its foot in a lot of future opportunities (Quantum, EV, robots...)| |NOW (Sell half at target and reanalyse the company future)|3,6k (+40%)|170$|Started DCA when the stock hit 110 to 80$. I work in IT and used a lot of ITSM (JSM, EasyVista, SNow...) I've seen what AI can do already and know what it will be able to in the future and I believe ITSM will be crucial for it. Also, I think NOW is well placed to use and monetize Ai in the future. I don't wish to hold it forever, but will DCA out probably when the market will rerate it.| |RBRK (Sell half at target and reanalyse the company future)|3,5k (+60%)|120$|Started DCA between 60 and 45$. I believe AI security is booming and will be a crucial technology. Will maybe hold it depending on the future profitability of the business| |Mercado Libre (hold long term) |3,4k (-9%)|3100$|Amazon story. Know the risks of bad loan. Like having a stock not correlated to Ai with this kind of growth. Also like a business not based in north america. Plan to hold long time| |TEAM (don't know yet..)|3,4K (+80%)|350$|Ok so for this one I need to explain. My model tries to evaluate the future FCF per share value. I do take into account the SBC and global Share Dilution. I also believe Atlassian's solution like JIRA, Confluence, JSM and Cloud Business will be boosted by AI. I often read that "Atlassian solutions are trash", from users. Well, I've been working in IT for 10 years and I've never seen a user not complaining about software. So I'm not really listening to that. Also, the stock did actually hit 300$ not that long ago, and 450 before that, before dropping dramatically. Still, I myself don't believe the stock will reach 350$ in 2 years time. But I still keep it despite of my lucky gains cause the undervaluation I calculated is just to big to be ignored IMO| |RDDT (Sell half at target and reanalyse the company future)|3,4K (+19%)|360$|I bought reddit last year and sold at the 250$ peak. Bought again after the fall and made it profitable again with the recent rise. Despite the growth story, I love reddit and believe it's a singularity in the social market. When I read here and there that "Reddit is so bad at add management", I just think to myself "great, more space to improve and sustain the growth". Wise the rise of AI, I believe reddit will be one of the places with places safe from AI Slop.| |AVGO (hold long term) |3,2k (+48%)|575$|I believe AVGO will announce rises in guidance and is one of the most solid AI stock long term. Also, my company like many other was "forced" to pay VMWAre prices because they couldn't do anything else. And the company has a good history on capitalizing from acquisitions and opportunities| |UBER (Sell half at target and reanalyse the company future)|3,2k (-11%)|130$|I don't believe in the Tesla disruption. In fact, I think drones and automatic vehicules is the future for Uber which will be able to operate with less people, saving both costs and "human controversies".| |FOUR ( Plan to sell half around ATH, and DCA out after)|3k (-4%)|135$|The business model is hard to understand on this one and I spent a lot of time studying it. I believe that, with great execution, the company can do great and is on of a kind. This is also a "different" stock from exposed to Fintech without being another Neobank (I hold Nu, see below)| |GOOG (Hold long term) |3K (+32%)|450$|What to say here.. Bought last year, sold at 250$ after 100% gains. Bought again around the same price seeing my mistake. I believe GOOGLE will be the biggest company in the world in 3-5 years (and yes, I'm saying it despite thinking NVidia will reach 7/8T valuation). The company is just winning on every front. I believe it will obliterate OpenAI and have a foot in every major opportunity in the next decade. I also believe my model is to conservative on this one, but it's also why I'm not adding at current prices.| |MA (Hold long term or sell after some gains to get higher growth stock) |3k (flat)|730$|My latest addition after solding NBIS. I wanted a "safe position" to offset the risks of AI. I believe MA has been left out as it is a "boring business" comparing it to the AI/Space stocks, or even fintech. But when the euphoria goes down, I believe MA will benefit from investors reallocating their money. I did a calculation with VISA, and found that MA is just more undervalued.| |ADBE (DCA on the way up to target, depending on AI narrative)|2,5K (+5%)|450$|Just think its to undervalued to be ignored. Don't believe the growth will accelerate, but also don't believe it will slow down. I will sold when the market will decide to rerate it| |NU (Don't know yeat)|2,2k (-7%)|22$|One of the most promising Neobank in my opinion (also evaluated SOFI and found it fairly valued). Also, same as MELI, like to be exposed to latin america stocks.| |IONQ (speculative. Like RKLB / ASTS, I always like to have one, sell after a big pump, reenter after a sell off... just me playing. But I would like to own quantic long term also) |2k (+70%)|N/A|Just a gamble here. Wanted to by a "maybe next Nvidia stock" and hold to see what happens. Did the same with RKLB Twice, sold each time for 100% gains. Will buy again if the stock falls below 100/90$. Did 150% gains last year on D-Wave the same way. This time, I will try to hold despite the volatility. Wish I had the guts to hold it 10 years to see if I will be the next person saying "I could retire early thanks to my gamble on this one"|
If I had to self-evaluate, I would say:
- Too many positions (but it was my way of trying to offset risk). Maybe I should sell some, but I struggle with FOMO and wouldn't know what to do with the cash anyway, other than waiting for one of my other positions to drop. * I've been holding stocks like UBER and FOUR for a looooong time without any gains (and I'm currently in the red on them). But I actually think this is a good thing and proof that I believe in my own analysis. * Holding big gains makes me really uncomfortable (MU for example): proof that I still lack maturity as an investor.
To add to the discussion, here are some stocks I've evaluated as deeply undervalued based on my model. Please feel free to share your thoughts on them:
- D-LOCAL (don't know the company too well, and I already bought MU) * INTU (I just prefer NOW) * CELH (don't know what to think here; not sure what I would swap for it
I would also love to buy back into NBIS, RKLB, or ASTS. However, I sold them and the prices have gone up since then. I really don't want to sell high only to rebuy higher.
Thanks by advance for your responses. I'm just posting to learn.
Good luck to all of you