Key insights
- The analysis suggests Salesforce (CRM) may be approaching value territory, citing its customer-centricity, potential in agentic sales, strong cash flow, and historically low P/E ratios. Despite a shrinking CAGR and debt-funded buybacks, the author sees potential upside. The author is considering a position if the stock breaks a 5-year low or if a broader market event occurs, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for CRM's future performance.
This price action is getting pretty interesting.
Bullcase:
Saaspocalypse is overplayed - especially for businesses like salesforce that are heavily customer-centric.
Vibecoded software is yet to eat any business.
Salesforce is actually well-positioned to productize and profit from agentic sales agents. (see also Fin acquisition).
Business is a cashcow, margins are very strong.
30% of marketcap stock buyback (took out debt to action this though)
Still founder-led.
P/E and forward P/E historically low…
Bearcase:
CAGR shrinking Aforementioned debt Fin acquisition proves they have so far failed in the agentic space
What am I missing? And if anyone works at Salesforce, whats the vibe internally about business internally vs external optics? Anyone working at F500 companies, any conversations about migrating off Salesforce into custom software or a competitor?
Position: Currently zero. Considering rotating out of now recovered medical stocks (UNH and MOL) into out of favour CRM.
If we break the 5Y low ($130) or have an industry wide black swan, I’ll accelerate into a position.