Key insights
- The author expresses skepticism about Nvidia's Q1 earnings release, despite high expectations for revenue growth. They anticipate a potential negative market reaction even with strong results, citing past experiences where the stock declined despite positive news due to concerns about forward guidance. This suggests a high hurdle for Nvidia to positively surprise the market, implying potential short-term bearish pressure on the stock.
What is the actual hurdle rate for Jensen to make the stock go up in the morning?
Wall Street is expecting roughly $79 Billion in revenue (only about a casual 79% YoY growth, no big deal). But after the last three quarters, I have severe post-traumatic earnings disorder. Nvidia could literally announce they’ve successfully built a conscious Skynet that runs exclusively on Blackwell chips, and the market will still find a reason to tank it 4% because forward guidance on the Rubin architecture didn't account for a solar flare.