Key insights
- The potential for Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz and demand payment in Yuan could escalate geopolitical tensions and impact global trade. This could lead to higher oil prices, contributing to inflationary pressures in the US. Furthermore, the shift away from the US dollar for oil transactions could weaken the dollar's global dominance, indirectly impacting US equities.
https://www.investing.com/analysis/hormuz-strait-into-a-new-geopolitical-reality-200677808
A "New Balance" where Iran opens the Strait but under strict new conditions:
- Tolls: Iran begins charging "fees" for passage. * Petro-Yuan: Forcing ships to settle tolls or oil trades in Chinese Yuan rather than Dollars. * Insurance Shift: If Western insurers refuse to cover ships paying "illegal" Iranian tolls, Chinese insurance companies would step in. This would accelerate the decline of the Dollar and the rise of the Yuan as a global reserve currency.
We have seen the start of it in recent days, also today as it was the first time a European ship passed the Strait. Conditions are unknown yet. US will likely not accept this (as it undermines their position) so further escalation is most likely.