Key insights
- The author discusses Polymarket's secondary offering on Crowdcube, highlighting its $15B valuation and high P/E ratio based on reported volume. The potential for growth in the sports betting market and pre-IPO betting is noted. The offering of Series B preferred shares is mentioned as a potential concern, but the overall impact on US equities is considered slightly positive due to the potential growth in the betting market.
Is anybody considering the secondary Polymarket is running on Crowdcube?
They reported $10B in volume and they are raising at $15B valuation. With a 2% fee, that means $200M is revenue which means a 75x P/E, which is high. But world sport betting market revenue is $300B, that is 1500x their current revenue. Plus the pre-IPO betting on private company they announced last week could be huge
It seems they raised very little (under $600k). A potential concern is that they are offering series B preferred shares, which is probably worse than what they are offering to large investors, but this is a pre-IPO retail offering after all, so I am not sure how bad it actually is.