Key insights
- The author suggests that open-source AI models are rapidly approaching the performance of paid models like OpenAI and Anthropic. This trend could significantly devalue future IPOs of AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, potentially reducing their business models to services rather than core products. While software and hardware companies leveraging AI may remain strong, the direct LLM providers could face substantial wealth destruction.
I have been using some open-source and open Weight models in these last few days and at least for my applications it appears they are almost 80-90% as good as the paid ones like Claude or OpenAI codex.
I don't have to work too hard to imagine that eventually they will catch up and converge with the paid models .
it seems to me that Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, whenever they happen, will destroy a lot of wealth if not immediately then eventually.
the software companies that use these modules and build services on top of them will be fine. The hardware companies too will be fine because not everyone can afford the horsepower required to run these models. the LLM builders themselves might be reduced to providing services and consulting or value-added services, but the general model itself will cease to be a revenue-generating product.
Anybody else feel this or am I completely missing something?