Key insights
- Barclays downgraded Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) to Underweight, citing funding concerns due to the delayed Phase 2 REVERT study. Disappointing IPF trial results and uncertainty around TTI-109's clinical efficacy contribute to the negative outlook. The company's limited cash runway and low market cap amplify the risk for investors, potentially signaling broader funding challenges for small-cap biotech firms.
Investing.com - Barclays downgraded Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:TVRD) to Underweight from Equalweight on Monday and lowered its price target to $3.00 from $4.00. The stock currently trades at $3.39, down 80% over the past year, according to InvestingPro data. InvestingPro Tips reveal that 2 analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, while the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
The firm cited funding concerns after the company pushed out its Phase 2 REVERT hepatocellular carcinoma study of TTI-101, a STAT3 inhibitor, from the first half of 2026 to the second half of 2026. The delay creates additional risk relative to the company’s cash guidance of "through 4Q 2026."
In October, Tvardi Therapeutics reported disappointing results from the Phase 2 REVERT IPF trial in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. The company is currently evaluating TTI-109, a prodrug of TTI-101, in healthy volunteers with plans to move the program forward into indications where STAT3 plays a role.
TTI-109 could potentially address the gastrointestinal toxicities associated with TTI-101. Barclays said the data expected in the second quarter is not sufficient to build a positive thesis because proof of concept of STAT3 inhibition in a clinical setting is still needed to ascribe meaningful value to TTI-109.
The firm’s updated model reflects Tvardi Therapeutics’ cash runway risk and ascribes a 35% probability of success to TTI-110 in hepatocellular carcinoma. With a market cap of just $31.8 million and analyst price targets ranging from $3 to $15, investors face significant uncertainty ahead.
In other recent news, Tvardi Therapeutics has reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, which prompted Cantor Fitzgerald to reiterate a Neutral rating on the company’s stock. The focus remains on Tvardi’s next-generation pro-drug asset, TTI-109, following the lack of success of TTI-101 in the Phase 2 REVERT IPF study. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler has lowered its price target for Tvardi Therapeutics shares to $3.00 from $4.00, maintaining a Neutral rating. The firm highlighted the timing of Tvardi’s Phase 1 healthy volunteer study of TTI-109, with results expected in the second quarter of 2026 as a potential catalyst for the company’s drug development.
Additionally, Lucid Capital Markets has upgraded Tvardi Therapeutics stock from Neutral to Buy, setting a price target of $6.00. This decision is based on the valuation, as the shares are trading near the cash value of approximately $3.88 per share. Lucid Capital Markets considers the stock undervalued, given the potential of Tvardi’s drug pipeline. These recent developments reflect varying perspectives from analysts on Tvardi’s financial and strategic positioning.
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