Key insights
- Apple (AAPL) is expected to gain smartphone market share despite a global market decline, driven by demand for mid-priced devices and its ecosystem. While AI announcements at WWDC are a strategic positive, their impact on near-term upgrade cycles is seen as limited. Potential growth in China and the rising refurbished market offer support, with a foldable iPhone launch anticipated later this year.
Investing.com -- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) continues to outperform the broader smartphone market despite a challenging industry backdrop, Citi said in a research note following an industry expert call.
The brokerage said Counterpoint Research expects the global smartphone market to decline 14% in 2026, citing lingering effects from earlier demand pull-forward and higher memory costs that have weighed on Android device makers.
Despite that weakness, Apple posted modest year-over-year growth in April and is expected to continue gaining market share.
The company could also benefit from growing consumer interest in devices priced between $300 and $600.
Older iPhone models that fall into that range through promotions and carrier subsidies may appeal to budget-conscious buyers, particularly in China.
Demand for refurbished smartphones is also rising, supporting Apple’s broader ecosystem and installed user base.
On the artificial intelligence front, Apple’s recent Worldwide Developers Conference was viewed as an important milestone in the company’s long-term strategy.
New announcements included deeper integration with Google’s Gemini, a dedicated Siri application and continued development of a hybrid AI architecture that combines on-device processing with private cloud computing.
Those initiatives reinforce Apple’s privacy-focused approach to AI and could support future agentic AI capabilities.
The impact of Apple Intelligence on upgrade cycles is expected to be limited.
Although some consumers may replace devices earlier to access AI features, particularly in North America, slower adoption in other markets and broader economic pressures could offset much of that benefit.
As a result, smartphone replacement cycles are expected to remain close to current levels of roughly four years.
Attention is also turning to the company’s foldable smartphone plans.
Apple’s foldable iPhone remains on track for a launch later this year, although initial availability could be constrained by supply limitations.
Even so, foldable devices are expected to remain a relatively small segment of the market, accounting for about 4% of global smartphone shipments by 2030.
The combination of market share gains, expanding AI capabilities, and new product categories could help support Apple’s position even as overall smartphone demand remains under pressure.
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